The one feature of the B.C. Liberal Party leadership race that stands out the most is that no one stands out.
There are more than a half dozen candidates, but there is no obvious front-runner and no clear advantage held by any of them. Most are relatively unknown (even those who had been cabinet ministers in government) or whose identity is confined to geographical regions.
As of this column’s writing, it appeared there would be about eight candidates for at least the first part of the race (to continue past Dec. 29th, each candidate has to give the party $50,000, which should cull the field somewhat).
Here, then, is an attempt at handicapping each candidate (posted in no particular order):
Mike Bernier
The former education minister from the Peace River area, Bernier’s challenge will be establishing himself in the nearly 50 ridings within Metro Vancouver (each riding is assigned 100 “points,” which are distributed among the candidates based on how many votes they get from members in the riding).
Likeable and moderate, he could benefit from the preferred ballot system that will be used, as he may be many voters’ second or third choice.
Andrew Wilkinson
A former cabinet minister, Wilkinson must overcome being cast as a member of the elite, as he represents the wealthy Vancouver-Quilchena riding on the city’s west side. But he appears to be well-organized and seems to have started that organizing earlier than any of his rivals.
Wilkinson must also shed the image he honed while in government – coming across as arrogant and all-knowing (he’s both a doctor and a lawyer).
Dianne Watts
A former Surrey mayor and Conservative MP, there’s no question Watts brings some profile and experience to her candidacy bid.
But she’ll get a rough ride by some for her lack of history in the party (some will go as far as accusing her disloyalty) and her lack of party experience may hurt her chances of being named a second or third choice by many voters.
Mike de Jong
The best known of the field (he’s been an MLA for more than 20 years), de Jong brings experience but also baggage (some will no doubt lay the election loss directly at his feet). As well, any party member wanting “renewal” is unlikely to vote for him.
Sam Sullivan
The former Vancouver mayor’s chief reason for entering the race is to raise some provocative issues, such as legalized drugs, more private health care, charter schools and selling government liquor stores. Not sure he’ll be there at the end.
Todd Stone
The ex-transportation minister has youth and a reputation of thorough organizing on his side. Needs work on his communication skills, and needs to widen his appeal beyond his Kamloops regional base.
Michael Lee
A first-time MLA, the former corporate lawyer is well organized behind the scenes and may capture a lot of the conservative vote. His lack of name recognition is a big handicap.
Lucy Sager
A complete political unknown outside of her hometown of Terrace, she is a business development consultant who faces a very steep climb to compete with the more established and organized field.
The vote is in early February. Let the race begin!
Keith Baldrey is chief political reporter for Global B.C.
