Whatever the outcome of the election (I’m writing this column 48 hours before the polls closed on voting day) it will likely have a profound impact on the shape of the provincial economy.
Whether that impact will turn out to be positive or negative is unclear, but the differences in economic philosophy between the three parties are stark and revealing.
A victory by the B.C. Liberals keeps the status quo, which means it is full steam ahead for such things as resource development, megaprojects and low taxes. Developing a liquefied natural gas industry would remain a priority, as would building the Site C dam and the Massey tunnel bridge replacement.
Addressing climate change in any substantial way (aside from eventually shipping LNG to replace burning coal in Asia) would not be a major priority, as economic development would remain at the top of the to-do list. “Jobs, jobs, jobs” would continue to be the political mantra of B.C. Liberal leader Christy Clark.
And the government relationship with First Nations would continue to be shaped by a series of economic benefits agreements linked to various resource and energy projects.
If the NDP proves victorious, some significant changes in government policies would occur, and I’m not referring to relatively minor things like the tolling policy.
NDP leader John Horgan has signalled in speeches that he is prepared to make his party go all-in when it comes to dealing with climate change, which will likely mean a major shift away from a lot of natural resource development.
One of those developments is the twinning of the Kinder Morgan pipeline, which the NDP adamantly opposes. However, it is unclear what powers the province has to block the pipeline so the party’s position may be moot even it takes government.
Horgan says he supports an LNG industry, subject to a number of conditions (not the least of which is securing the approval of First Nations affected by any project), and it’s unclear whether those conditions present an impassable barrier. But the NDP will emphasize the creation of clean, alternative energy projects such as wind and solar power and it may back away from completing the construction of the Site C dam.
I’ve recently speculated in this space that Horgan won’t ultimately shut the dam down, since he wouldn’t want to create the substantial political liability that would result from firing the 2,000-plus workforce there. But a shutdown would presumably be on the table for a while with an NDP win.
One of the critical differences between the two major parties is the desired relationship with First Nations. While the B.C. Liberals favor economic agreements with various bands, the NDP has agreed to fully embrace and implement the United Nations Declaration of the Rights of Indigenous Peoples (UNDRIP) which many observers think give First Nations a veto over any land use decision.
Horgan views UNDRIP differently and thinks there is no veto-granting power, but it will be interesting to see how potential investors tied to prospective developments view the United Nations document (the federal Liberals, who campaigned on supporting UNDRIP, have since come to the conclusion that it is indeed unworkable as government policy).
Then there is the B.C. Green Party. As I write this, there is some speculation that the Greens could hold the balance of power if neither the B.C. Liberals nor the NDP are able to secure a majority victory.
In an interview with me last week on Global B.C., Green Party leader Andrew Weaver listed three demands for any party obtaining his party’s support in the legislature: a ban on corporate and union political donations, the introduction of a proportional representation model for electing provincial governments and more money for education.
Perhaps he may put on the negotiating table some other items, such as significant tax hikes, including a major increase in the carbon tax. The Greens platform has a host of policies that may find their way into any negotiations in the unlikely event of a minority government situation.
It’s unclear at this writing whether political change is coming to this province. If it is, don’t underestimate its impact on our economy.
Keith Baldrey is chief political reporter for Global B.C.
