The 2012 provincial election in Alberta provided an interesting case study on how support for an Official Opposition party can shift when a third option becomes competitive. In 2008, Alberta’s Liberal Party secured 26 per cent of the vote and nine seats in the legislature. Four years later, amidst the emergence of the Wildrose Party as the home for voters upset with the performance of the governing Progressive Conservatives, Alberta’s Liberals were reduced to 10 per cent of the vote and four seats.
The drop for Alberta’s Liberals from 2008 to 2012 has been the most precipitous for any Official Opposition party in Western Canada in this century. BC United seemed close to matching this feat in 2024. Four years ago, the then-called BC Liberals won 34 per cent of the vote and 28 seats under Andrew Wilkinson. In July, the rebranded BC United was in single digits (nine per cent), trailing the Conservative Party of BC (38 per cent) and the governing BC New Democratic Party (NDP) (41 per cent).
Research Co. began to measure voting intention in British Columbia immediately after Kevin Falcon was selected as leader of the BC Liberals in February 2022. At the time, the Official Opposition party could count on the support of 38 per cent of decided voters, eight points behind the BC NDP (46 per cent) and with the BC Conservatives at the same level they enjoyed running in a limited number of ridings in 2020 (two per cent).
The BC Liberals were slightly ahead of their 2020 election result in surveys conducted in October 2022 (35 per cent) and February 2023 (36 per cent). Then came the rebrand, and the party never improved. In May 2023, a third of decided voters (33 per cent) were ready to cast a ballot for BC United. By September, only one in five (20 per cent) felt that way.
A collapse as massive as this one, to borrow Falcon’s phrase at yesterday’s press conference with BC Conservative Leader John Rustad, “doesn’t happen overnight.” The decided vote share for BC United continued to drop as the months went by, to 17 per cent in January 2024, 15 per cent in April, 12 per cent in May, 11 per cent in June and nine per cent in July. In stark contrast, the BC Conservatives jumped from four per cent in May 2023 to 38 per cent in July 2024.
In September 2023, the split in the centre-right was near perfect. Almost half of decided voters (48 per cent) were supporting the BC NDP, 20 per cent were with BC United and 19 per cent backed the BC Conservatives. Attempts to “unite the right” before the end of the year failed, even as some voters – particularly those who had supported the BC Liberals in 2020 – yearned for a truly united centre-right coalition.
There was also a discernible drop in the proportion of British Columbians who connected with Falcon on a personal level. In February 2023, more than two in five (44 per cent) approved of his performance as leader of the BC Liberals. Falcon’s approval stood at 35 per cent in late July, four points lower than Rustad (39 per cent), hardly suggesting that voters perceived him as a “premier-in-waiting”.
BC United’s apparent demise does not change what had fundamentally become a two-horse race. Just what happens next will be crucial in two areas of the province: the Fraser Valley and southern B.C.
The 2020 election, called in the middle of the COVID-19 pandemic, enabled the BC NDP to win seven of nine seats in the Fraser Valley. At the time, John Horgan’s approval rating stood at 65 per cent across the province, 17 points higher than what David Eby had in July. The election could see the return of the Fraser Valley as a centre-right stronghold, if the BC Conservative contenders are able to connect with voters who may have second thoughts about Eby’s government – and who cast ballots for the BC NDP in 2020 when a different leader was premier.
In southern B.C., as was the case in the entire province, BC United badly trailed the BC NDP and the BC Conservatives. However, popular incumbents elected as BC Liberals could be expected to secure a large proportion of their 2020 vote, losing some of if to the upstart BC Conservatives and facilitating wins for the BC New Democrats with about 35 per cent of all votes cast. A centre-right unity candidate makes this scenario impossible.
As Falcon steps aside, the province-wide campaign becomes a contest of contrasting visions. Eby’s BC NDP will need to redouble its efforts to connect with groups that are looking at the opposition as an option worth voting for. Rustad’s BC Conservatives will have to offer an alternative to what they perceive as the “radical” policies of the current government. The rural-urban divide will also be important. For the first time in this century, the de facto “free enterprise party” will be led by a candidate who has never represented a riding in the City of Vancouver.
There is a fundamental difference in 2024. Voters aged 55 and over – who traditionally cast ballots at a higher rate than their younger counterparts – are currently more likely to support the BC NDP. In the elections won by Gordon Campbell in 2005 and 2009, this group stayed solidly behind the BC Liberals, and younger voters were more likely to say they were voting for the BC NDP. At this point, voters aged 18-34, dissatisfied with issues such as housing or the economy, are looking at the BC Conservatives as their vehicle. Sealing the deal with this group could end up defining the colour of the provincial government.
Mario Canseco is president of Research Co.
