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The transition to electric vehicles (EVs) is a positive step toward reducing carbon emissions and combating climate change (although some will argue with this, due to greenhouse gas emissions from producing batteries and the source of electricity in jurisdictions dependent on fossil fuel generation).
Either way, it's crucial to approach this shift with a realistic understanding of the various challenges it entails, including increased electricity requirements.
The September 23 opinion article by Dan Woynillowicz and Madeleine McPherson ("Opinion: B.C.'s energy debate needs less heat and more fact”) suggests that an Energy Futures Institute report overestimates electricity demand from EVs. That is not true.
It is further claimed that research by Energy Futures was done "to spark public anxiety." Also not true.
Woynillowicz and McPherson failed to mention the need for local distribution upgrades costing billions of dollars. Just last year, Metro Vancouver stated that to meet targets by 2050, the Lower Mainland alone requires up to 100,000 public and multi-family building chargers at a cost of $2.1 billion to $2.9 billion.
Spending billions on charging systems while failing to plan for needed electricity demand is a recipe for disaster. A well-planned and well-executed strategy is necessary to support an EV fleet that is growing. It’s this simple: More electric vehicles equals more electricity needed.
A recent Energy Futures report prepared by business professor Jerome Gessaroli ("A Road Too Far") provides a comprehensive analysis of the challenges associated with B.C.'s ambitious zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) mandate targets. It is now law that 26 per cent of all light-duty vehicles sold in B.C. must be ZEVs by the 2026 model year, 90 per cent by the 2030 model year, and 100 per cent by 2035. There is a $20,000 penalty per vehicle that does not meet the required ratio.
Such aggressive goals necessitate a careful examination of the infrastructure and energy requirements needed to support them.
According to Gessaroli, meeting B.C.’s ZEV targets will require an additional 2,700 gigawatt hours of electricity by 2030, and 9,700 gigawatt hours by 2040—almost equal to the output of two Site C dams. This substantial increase in energy demand cannot be ignored or downplayed, as it has significant implications for B.C.'s power generation and distribution infrastructure.
BC Hydro has stated that 330,000 EVs will require 1,000 gigawatt hours of electricity, or 3.03 megawatt hours per EV (based on 1,000 gigawatt hours divided by 330,000 EVs). Using that 3.03 megawatt-hour-per-EV ratio along with Energy Futures' forecasted number of EVs in 2030 suggests that 3,500 gigawatt hours of electricity will actually be needed for EVs in BC.
The Energy Futures conclusion is consistent with findings from a large federal government-commissioned report and a working paper from the University of Victoria, both of which suggest similar power needs to those stated in the Energy Futures study. In June, the BC government itself referred to a report stating the province may require up to 160 per cent (2.6 times) more electricity by 2050.
Why all the confusion? It’s true that an EV uses less energy overall than a comparable internal combustion vehicle, because electric motors are so much more efficient. An individual auto owner can reduce their own personal net energy use, but this does not address the problem of scale. British Columbia has 3.7 million vehicles today, but few of them are powered by electricity now. Converting this fleet to electricity is challenging, especially the rate at which governments are pushing it to happen. That’s one reason the Canadian Energy Regulator projected a dramatic 9,200-per-cent increase for Canada in electricity demand for transportation between 2019 and 2050. All this energy has to come from somewhere.
According to their 2023-24 Annual Service Plan Report, BC Hydro relied on imported power (mostly from the United States) for 13,603 gigawatt hours of electricity last fiscal year, or about 25% of our annual needs of 55,413 gigawatt hours. This came at a cost of $1.4 billion, according to filings with the BC Utilities Commission. Net electricity imports have continued in the current fiscal year, meaning BC Hydro is on track to be a net importer of electricity in nine out of 17 of the most recent years.
At the same time as vehicle electrification, government policies are pushing industry and homeowners to drop familiar sources of heat and power that might be affordable and dependable, but produce emissions. Heat pumps, induction stove tops and green mega-projects will all compete with EVs for electricity. Dismissing or underestimating electricity demand could lead to inadequate planning and potential shortfalls in power supply and infrastructure.
All evidence must be considered when making decisions affecting the public interest. The ambitious decarbonization plans of governments toward climate goals will fall flat if energy decisions are not made with all available information. As we move forward with electrifying the transportation sector, we must ensure that our energy policies and infrastructure development keep pace with the transition.
Barry Penner is chair of the Energy Futures Institute. Stewart Muir is CEO of the Resource Works Society.
