Burnaby North: Swing Riding to watch

BACKGROUND

Burnaby North is considered a swing riding, generally a close race between the B.C. Liberals and B.C. NDP. It is bordered by the Burrard Inlet to the north, Canada Way and Deer Lake Parkway to the south, Sperling and Kensington avenues to the east, and Boundary Road to the west.

B.C. Liberals incumbent Richard Lee has held the seat since 2001 when he defeated B.C. NDP candidate Pietro Calendino. Green support is small but steady around seven per cent in the last three elections.

DEMOGRAPHICS

Like other areas of Burnaby, this riding is multi-cultural. According to the 2011 census, just under half of residents’ mother tongue is neither English nor French. Chinese languages are the most common first language after English, followed by Italian, Korean and Tagalog. Only around 6800 residents live in single detached homes, while over 13,000 live in apartments or duplexes, and many rent.

HOT ISSUES

Housing affordability is a hot topic in Burnaby, particularly in areas with high density and where a high proportion of residents’ income goes to rent.

In 2011, more than half of residents in some areas of the Heights and Willingdon Heights spend more than 30 per cent of income on rent and shelter, such as the neighbourhoods around Hastings Street. In the south of Capitol Hill and along Lougheed Highway are also “rent poor” with more than half of the residents spending more than 30 per cent of income on rent, according to Census Mapper and data from the 2011 census.

Brentwood Town Centre is also in the riding. The Brentwood area is a transit, shopping and housing hub for the community, and is one of the town centres targeted for growth in the Metro Vancouver 2040 plan. Areas around Brentwood Town Centre saw between 17 and 20 per cent population increase between 2011 and 2016, matched only by Metrotown and Edmonds for growth.

The Kinder Morgan pipeline expansion continues to be a controversial topic. Environmental groups BROKE (Burnaby Residents Opposing Kinder Morgan Expansion) and Force of Nature hosted an all-candidates meeting April 18 to ask candidates about the pipeline and the oil and gas industries, among other issues.

WHAT TO EXPECT

Lee can expect a tight race in this rematch against B.C. NDP candidate Janet Routledge. Lee has held the seat four consecutive terms in this swing riding, but the NDP has been close behind the last three elections.

In 2013 and 2009, Lee beat out the NDP candidates by around 650 votes each time. In 2005, the race was even closer with Lee beating Calendino by only 65 votes.

In the last election, Liberals had strong support in Parkcrest, Brentwood and Deer Lake Place, while NDP were strong in parts of the Heights and Willingdon Heights. But more than 30 polling stations narrowly favoured one candidate by 10 votes or less.  

OUR PREDICTION

This will be a tight race. An IPSOS poll on April 11 had NDP in the lead, and the majority of respondents said they want a change in government.

If the NDP and Routledge can capitalize on this desire for change, Routledge is the likely winner.

However an increase in popularity for the Greens may siphon off some votes (for candidate Peter Hallschmid) from the left, returning Richard Lee for his fifth term.

BY THE NUMBERS

Population: 55,010
Median age: 40
Average number of children per home: 1
Average number of persons per family: 2.9
Total number of occupied private dwellings: 21,715
English as a mother tongue: 26,240
source: Elections B.C., based on 2011 census