Pro Picks is a weekly column where AP Pro Football Writer Rob Maaddi shares his picks for upcoming games. For all previous Pro Picks, head here.
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A full slate of games returns for Week 8 with several mismatches.
Six teams are favorites by at least seven points on BetMGM Sportsbook. Three of those are double-digit favorites.
Pro Picks took three of the underdogs to cover the spread.
Five games feature division rivals, including showdowns for first place in both the AFC and NFC South.
The Vikings and Rams kick off the week on Thursday night while the Giants and Steelers finish up on Monday night. The Cowboys and 49ers renew their rivalry on “Sunday Night Football” with both banged-up teams underachieving.
Atlanta (4-3) at Tampa Bay (4-3)
Line: Falcons minus 2 1/2
This matchup for the NFC South lost its luster when the Buccaneers lost their top two receivers. Chris Godwin is out for the season and Mike Evans could miss at least three games. Without them, Tampa Bay has to rely more on an improved rushing attack to avoid putting too much pressure on Baker Mayfield, who leads the NFL with 18 TD passes but has thrown five picks in the past two games. Kirk Cousins has plenty of playmakers, including Bijan Robinson, who has run for 198 yards the past two weeks and is averaging 4.7 yards per carry. The Falcons rallied for an overtime win over the Buccaneers in Week 5. They’ll take control of the division with another victory.
BEST BET: FALCONS: 27-20
Philadelphia (4-2) at Cincinnati (3-4)
Line: Bengals minus 2
Saquon Barkley’s addition has paid off for the Eagles. Jalen Hurts is making fewer mistakes and Philadelphia’s defense hasn’t allowed a touchdown in the past two games. The Bengals have a chance to even their record after a 1-4 start but they’ll need Joe Burrow and the playmakers on offense to produce more. Cincinnati has scored 38 points combined over the past two wins after averaging 35 over a three-game stretch.
UPSET SPECIAL: EAGLES: 24-23
Minnesota (5-1) at Los Angeles Rams (2-4)
Line: Vikings minus 3
After losing their first game of the season at home against Detroit, the Vikings hit the road to face the Rams on Thursday night amid speculation that Minnesota is pursuing Matthew Stafford. The Vikings hurt themselves with penalties and mistakes in a 31-29 loss. If they don’t get Stafford, they should still stay in the playoff race with Sam Darnold, who has cooled after a hot start. The Rams have to decide whether to trade assets and build for the future or pursue a playoff bid in an NFC West that’s up for grabs. The return of receiver Cooper Kupp should boost their offense.
VIKINGS: 26-20
Baltimore (5-2) at Cleveland (1-6)
Line: Ravens minus 9
Two-time NFL MVP Lamar Jackson is playing elite ball, Derrick Henry has been sensational and the Ravens are back after an 0-2 start. The Browns are turning to Jameis Winston after losing Deshaun Watson for the season. That’s an upgrade. Cleveland is playing for pride against a division rival, still has a tough defense and Baltimore is coming off a short week after a Monday night win. That’ll keep it closer than it should be.
RAVENS: 24-16
Tennessee (1-5) at Detroit (5-1)
Line: Lions minus 11 1/2
Jared Goff has been exceptional, especially over the past three games. The Lions beat the Vikings on the road to reclaim the NFC North. With Super Bowl aspirations, Detroit isn’t looking back. The Titans are giving up the fewest yards per game (259.2), but the offense is next-to-last in yards and is averaging just 17.7 points. Mason Rudolph or Will Levis? Doesn’t matter.
LIONS: 27-14
Arizona (3-4) at Miami (2-4)
Line: Dolphins minus 3 1/2
Tua Tagovailoa is expected to return after missing four games because of a concussion. The Dolphins desperately need him to boost an anemic offense that averaged 10 points per game during his absence. The Cardinals are coming off a Monday night win over the Chargers but Kyler Murray and the offense aren’t putting up enough points. Arizona’s banged-up defense has a tough task against Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and the rest of Miami’s offense that should be rejuvenated by Tagovailoa’s return.
DOLPHINS: 26-20
New York Jets (2-5) at New England (1-6)
Line: Jets minus 7
Davante Adams’ arrival didn’t help Aaron Rodgers get on track. He’s looking more like a 40-year-old quarterback than a four-time MVP. The “soft” Patriots — that’s what coach Jerod Mayo called his team — should provide a cure for New York’s woes. The Jets already beat New England 24-3 in Week 3. But Drake Maye is starting for the Patriots now so they’ll be more competitive on offense. The teams are a combined 1-9 against the spread in their past five games.
JETS: 23-17
Green Bay (5-2) at Jacksonville (2-5)
Line: Packers minus 4
The Jaguars are starting a stretch of games that will determine their season, facing four NFC teams that currently have a combined record of 19-4. Meanwhile, Jacksonville is just 5-23 in its past 28 games against non-conference opponents. Trevor Lawrence is coming off a mistake-free game and needs another to have a shot against the Packers. Tank Bigsby has run for 90-plus yards in three of Jacksonville’s past four games. Green Bay found a way to beat Houston last week despite three turnovers. If Jordan Love protects the ball — he is tied for an NFL-most eight picks — the Packers will have success.
PACKERS: 29-24
Indianapolis (4-3) at Houston (5-2)
Line: Texans minus 5
The Texans are trying for just their second sweep of the Colts in this AFC South rivalry. C.J. Stroud is coming off his worst game of the season in Houston’s loss at Green Bay but the Texans can strengthen their hold on the division with another victory over Indianapolis. Anthony Richardson was shaky again in his return last week as the Colts won for the fourth time in five games since an 0-2 start. They’ll need more from Richardson in the passing game to have a chance in Houston.
TEXANS: 27-20
New Orleans (2-5) at Los Angeles Chargers (3-3)
Line: Chargers minus 7 1/2
So much for the unstoppable Saints the league saw the first two weeks. The offense has struggled, Derek Carr and other key players have been sidelined and New Orleans has been blown out at home the past two games. Maybe a road trip to California will help. The Chargers won’t be in a good mood after a last-second loss in Arizona. Justin Herbert is coming off his best game but the offense isn’t finishing drives.
CHARGERS: 23-17
Buffalo (5-2) at Seattle (4-3)
Line: Bills minus 3
Josh Allen hasn’t thrown an interception, the Bills have a comfortable lead in the AFC East and new addition Amari Cooper already made a big impact. Now Buffalo tries for its first win against a team that has a winning record. The Seahawks are back on track after losing three in a row. They’ve got the NFL’s top-ranked passing offense behind Geno Smith but likely won’t have DK Metcalf.
BILLS: 26-20
Chicago (4-2) at Washington (5-2)
Line: Bears minus 2 1/2
Doesn’t look promising for the No. 1 vs. No. 2 matchup. Caleb Williams and the Bears probably won’t face Jayden Daniels when they visit the Commanders. Daniels has a rib injury and veteran Marcus Mariota would start for Washington in place of the injured rookie QB. The Bears are rolling. Williams, a balanced offense and a strong defense have helped Chicago win three in a row. The Commanders have been a surprise team under first-year coach Dan Quinn thanks to Daniels, offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury’s productive offense and a revamped defense. With Daniels, it’ll be a different game. Without him, the Bears have a big edge.
BEARS, 22-19
Carolina (1-6) at Denver (4-3)
Line: Broncos minus 10
If Sean Payton gets Bo Nix and the offense on par with Denver’s defense, the Broncos will be a dangerous team in the AFC West. They’ve already come a long way. The Panthers are headed nowhere and could end up with the No. 1 overall pick again. Even worse, they haven’t found out if Bryce Young can be a franchise QB. Young made a cameo in last week’s lopsided loss and gets a chance to play this week because of Andy Dalton's thumb injury.
BRONCOS: 24-13
Kansas City (6-0) at Las Vegas (2-5)
Line: Chiefs minus 10
The two-time defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs (6-0) gave Patrick Mahomes a new playmaker, acquiring three-time All-Pro receiver DeAndre Hopkins. He provides another edge for Mahomes and his teammates, who will seek to avenge the Raiders’ nonsensical offseason trolling of the three-time Super Bowl MVP. Keep the Kermit puppets at home.
CHIEFS: 33-13
Dallas (3-3) at San Francisco (3-4)
Line: 49ers minus 4
Micah Parsons could return to give Dallas a significant boost. The Cowboys are coming off a bye that gave them an extra week to think about a 38-point loss to Detroit. The banged-up 49ers keep losing players with Brandon Aiyuk out for the season. Brock Purdy has to avoid trying to do too much and rely on other playmakers around him. San Francisco has won the past three meetings, including two playoff games. Neither team is playing at a January level right now.
49ERS: 23-21
New York Giants (2-5) at Pittsburgh (5-2)
Line: Steelers minus 6 1/2
It should be a long night for Daniel Jones and the rest of New York’s offense against T.J. Watt and a defense that’s allowed just 14.4 points per game. On the other side, Russell Wilson follows up his impressive prime-time debut for the Steelers with a Monday night appearance. He’ll need to avoid Dexter Lawrence and continue distributing the ball efficiently.
STEELERS: 26-16
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Last week: Straight up: 10-5. Against spread: 5-10.
Overall: Straight up: 72-35. Against spread: 57-48-2.
Prime-time: Straight up: 16-9. Against spread: 12-12-1.
Best Bet: Straight up: 5-2. Against spread: 5-2.
Upset Special: Straight up: 5-2. Against spread: 5-2.
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AP NFL: https://apnews.com/hub/nfl
Rob Maaddi, The Associated Press
