In a sport as prone to random chance as hockey, there’s no such thing as a sure thing.
But some things feel like sure things.
Markus Näslund with room to release a wrist shot at the right faceoff circle sure felt like a sure thing, to the point that I would sometimes leap to my feet to celebrate before he’d even started to shoot the puck.
When the 2009-10 Vancouver Canucks were down by a goal in the third period, it still felt like a sure thing that they would come back to win the game. Sure enough, that season’s Canucks are tied for the 13th most comeback wins in NHL history when down by at least a goal in the third.
And the 2024-25 Canucks certainly feel like a sure thing but in the opposite way: when they’ve got a lead in the third period, it feels certain they’re going to give it up and lose.
But maybe it’s just a feeling.
Here’s a wild statistic: the 2024-25 Canucks have yet to lose a single game in regulation when they’ve entered the third period with a lead.
That sounds like it can’t possibly be the case, but it’s true. Even with this team’s struggles to hold leads this season, they have yet to lose in regulation after taking a lead into the third period.
Now, to be clear, they lead the league in overtime and shootout losses — six — when entering the third period with a lead, so don’t get me wrong, they’re definitely coughing up a lot of leads this season. But at least they’re avoiding losing outright. Every single time the Canucks have gone into the third period with a lead this season, they’ve gained at least a point.
Perhaps that isn’t very reassuring, especially after the Canucks just lost another game in overtime after taking a two-goal lead earlier in the game.
The return of Quinn Hughes wasn’t enough nor was J.T. Miller having his best game of the season. They still gave up the lead in spite of getting star-level performances from the two biggest stars in the lineup. So yes, that’s concerning.
It feels like the 2024-25 Canucks start slow in the first period, give up leads in the third period, and can’t win in overtime. On the plus side, at least they’ve outscored their opponents 42-to-32 in the second period.
The Canucks once again won the second period when I watched this game.
- It was somewhat surprising to see Quinn Hughes return so quickly after his head coach reported a “week-to-week” timeline just one week ago. Hughes took the ice with a very visible bandage/brace on his left hand, so it’s clear that he’s not 100 per cent, even if he is healthy enough to play. To be fair, very few NHLers are ever 100 per cent. It’s just that the Canucks don’t have the best track record with hand injuries.
- The first minute of the game went incredibly poorly for the Canucks. It started with the called-up Jonathan Lekkerimäki getting absolutely walloped by Canadiens defenceman Kaiden Guhle in the neutral zone. It was a bracing welcome-back-to-the-NHL moment for Lekkerimäki, who took it like a champ and responded with a fantastic game.
- The terrible opening minute ended with Cole Caufield getting the first goal of the game. Caufield opened up space for himself by skating up to the top of the zone, with his check, Vincent Desharnais staying deeper, not wanting to skate too far from the front of the net. Big mistake, as Caufield is a bonafide sniper and he took advantage of the extra space to rip a wristshot past Kevin Lankinen’s glove.
- After 21 games without scoring a goal against a goaltender, J.T. Miller beat Sam Montembeault twice. He tied up the game midway through the first period after some hard work and speed from Nils Höglander to win the puck along the boards. Höglander slipped the puck through to Miller, who made like he believed in fairies and clapped hard, sending the puck soaring into the net with a sprinkle of pixie dust.
- Quinn Hughes got a touch on the puck as Höglander battled, so picked up an assist, adding another before the end of the game. He’s a better one-handed captain than James Hook, that’s for sure.
- Höglander still hasn’t scored a goal in 32 games but he was in fine playmaking form, nearly setting up Danton Heinen for a goal later in the first. Unfortunately, J.T. Miller thought it was another pass to him and tried to deflect the puck into the net with his skate but only got enough of the puck to put it out of Heinen’s reach.
- This was one of Höglander’s best games of the season, as he was a buzzsaw on the forecheck and, as a result, led the Canucks in corsi, with the Canucks outshooting the Canadiens 11-to-5 when he was on the ice at 5-on-5. He then undercut it completely with a penalty at the end of regulation but we’ll get to that.
- For a moment, it seemed like this game would take another Canuck out with an injury. Derek Forbort accidentally ran into Alex Newhook in the neutral zone and fell to the ice, clutching his knee. After missing a ton of time to injuries last season, Forbort has already missed several games to injury this season. Fortunately, he returned to the game a few minutes later and played a regular shift, so he ought to be okay.
- Lekkerimäki helped the Canucks take the lead in the second period, taking advantage of a weird bounce off the boards on a Tyler Myers dump-in. He confidently drove to the net and made a quick deke but then fanned on his shot. The off-speed pitch fooled Montembeault, however, as he spilled out a rebound that Miller raised to the roof like Principal Scudworth.
- Just seconds later, Miller returned the favour, assisting on Lekkerimäki’s 3-1 goal. He solved the Canucks’ puck-moving woes from the defence by moving it himself from below the goal line, sending a snappy pass to Brock Boeser for a clean breakout. Boeser then relayed the puck to Lekkerimäki, who was joined by Myers for a 2-on-1. Lekkerimäki had a shooter mentality the whole way and possibly also a don’t-pass-it-to-Myers mentality, looking off the veteran to fire a shot short side past Montembeault’s blocker.
- “It was a nice goal,” said Tocchet. “I thought he held his own tonight. He’s been playing well down there [in Abbotsford]. Helluva shot, that’s his gift. Hopefully, he builds off that.”
- Lekkerimäki got a great goal but, more importantly, he got a great hug from Myers.
- “I thought Leks looked good, brought some energy, and I’m happy he got on the scoresheet,” said Miller.
- A series of poor plays allowed the Canadiens to get a goal back midway through the second period. Unfortunately, most of those poor plays were made by Carson Soucy, starting with an ill-conceived pinch down the boards as his teammates were changing behind him, leaving just one defenceman back as the Canadiens counter-attacked. It was a baffling choice that led to a minute-long shift in the defensive zone for the Canucks.
- Soucy had a chance to clear the puck about 30 seconds before the goal but instead of skating into the space available, he tried to flip the puck out instead. The flip was too casual and was easily knocked down. To top it off, Soucy cut right in front of Lankinen’s eyes to try to tie up Jake Evans in front so Lankinen couldn’t pick up the point shot to make the save. You can recover from one mistake; three mistakes make it harder.
- While Lankinen slid out of the middle of the net — as Thatcher Demko always says, “Middle net is strong” — and so slid out of the way of the puck, he didn’t have much help from his defenceman on that one.
- “It’s disappointing to be up 3-1 and we kind of gave them a goal,” said Tocchet. “We were a little bit soft on a couple of plays and they get that screen shot — a double screen in front. I think if we could get out of the period 3-to-1, it would settle some guys down, but I thought we gave them that goal and it gives them a little bit of life.”
- Every once in a while, Tyler Myers goes, “Wait a second…I won the Calder! I was rookie of the year! I had 48 points!” and momentarily transforms into the number-one defenceman he was always supposed to be. He kicked off the third period with a solo dash, closing quickly on Jake Evans to steal the puck at the point, then bursting away up the ice, only to ring the puck off the inside of the post. It could have been a gorgeous goal but he missed it by that much.
- The Canadiens tied the game 3-3 on the power play with a little luck and a breakdown. Miller chased the puck on the penalty kill, taking himself out of position and forcing Teddy Blueger to collapse back into the middle. That gave Lane Hutson room to walk into the left faceoff circle, pulling Myers away from the front of the net to close the gap. Meanwhile, Miller pointed Derek Forbort to watch the backdoor play. That meant both defencemen left Kirby Dach alone in front and, when he chopped at Hutson’s rebound, it deflected off Myers’ stick and tumbled through Lankinen’s five-hole.
- A little more luck gave the Canadiens the 4-3 lead five minutes later. Hutson jumped up the left wing and tried to set up Christian Dvorak with a cross-crease pass but it never got there. Instead, it banked into the net off Hughes’ skate for an own goal, giving Hughes a goal and two assists on the night.
- Fortunately for the Canucks, Caufield has a temper and took a very stupid penalty. He took a hard hit from Myers, then made sure to get the ref’s attention by complaining about the hit before skating up behind Myers and slashing the stick out of his hands. He then seemed utterly flabbergasted that he was getting a penalty.
- Miller tallied his fourth point of the night to tie the game on the power play. As he’s done so many times before, Miller came down the left side looking like he was going to shoot the whole way then ripped a pass through the seam to Jake DeBrusk for an open-net finish. It was a brilliant pass and a wonderful catch-and-release from DeBrusk.
- Lankinen was brilliant in the back half of the third period to get the game to overtime. He robbed Alex Newhook of every penny he owned with a sliding stop after Soucy missed a hit on the boards midway through the period, then got his blocker on a Hutson shot off a scrambled faceoff play that left the rookie defenceman all alone at the left faceoff dot.
- After Höglander had such a strong game, it was frustrating to see him take such a dumb penalty in the final minute of regulation. He broke his stick earlier in the shift and arguably should have bolted to the bench for a new one. Instead, he stayed in the play and made a great defensive play on Hutson, showing exactly how to deal with the nimble defenceman: go through him. Unfortunately, Höglander then also shoved down Josh Anderson, who didn’t have the puck. The look on Tocchet’s face says it all.
- “When you go into overtime 4-on-3, it’s tough,” said Hughes. “I mean, it’s tough, I know Högs had no stick there. I really liked his game tonight and I think he’s just trying to take his man and the refs saw it as a penalty. I thought it could’ve went either way on that one.”
- A 4-on-3 power play is tough to kill, especially with the way the Canadiens rotated on the power play. Hutson came across the top of the faceoff circles, forcing Blueger to follow him across to stay in his shooting lane. One of Pius Suter or Derek Forbort needed to rotate into Blueger’s spot but no one did, leaving Nick Suzuki more open than Tick-Tock the Crocodile’s mouth when Captain Hook is about, and he snapped the puck past Lankinen.
- While Lankinen called for a video review of the goal, motioning to his glove to indicate that Kirby Dach contacted it, Dach was entirely outside of the crease the entire sequence. Like someone living on the edge with their cell phone, the Canucks had no case.
- “We need to be able to hold onto leads like that — have to be comfortable with a lead,” said Miller. “It seems we’re unfortunately a little less comfortable than before. They had a really good second-period push and we didn’t really have an answer. I thought it wasn’t all bad but a two-goal lead, we should be able to lock that down.”
