A Simon Fraser University economist has found evidence that alleged robocalls in the last federal election could have significantly influenced turnout at the ballot box.
"My analysis of the Elections Canada data suggests that any alleged robocalling had a statistically significant impact on voter turnout and election results," said economics professor Anke Kessler, who published her findings on Monday.
Kessler noted that by Feb. 26, voters in 27 ridings reported allegations of "robocalls." The calls were allegedly giving people wrong information about their polling station or were harassing in nature and claiming to be from a particular candidate.
Kessler analyzed changes in voter turnout and the number of votes each party received in the 2008 and 2011 elections. She found polling stations with predominantly non-conservative voters saw a decline in turnout from 2008 to 2011.
"Ridings where voters were allegedly targeted by robocalls - meaning they were possibly discouraged from voting or directed to the wrong polls - experienced an estimated decline in voter turnout of three percentage points on average. This reduction in turnout translates into roughly 2,500 fewer eligible voters going to the polls," she said.
Elections Canada is investigating Liberal and NDP allegations that the Conservatives hired companies to robocall voters across Canada. Kessler's study also suggested that in five close ridings with alleged robocalls, the calls could have secured a victory for those Tory MPs.
"The average winning margin for districts with no robocall allegations was 10,913 votes or 22.6 percentage points," Kessler said. "Ridings where allegations of impropriety have emerged, in contrast, had a margin of victory that was almost 28 per cent lower: 8,719 votes or 16.4 percentage points."
Kessler also stressed that her findings do not prove that misconduct or illegal activity happened.
"It is important to note that my findings in no way can prove whether misconduct or an illegal act has occurred," she said.
To read her paper, go to http: //bit.ly/ RobocallPaper.
