For a party that has a razor thin margin of error if it expects to win the upcoming election, the NDP can't be happy about a number of developments in recent days.
The NDP needs to not only hold onto every single seat it won in the 2013 election -- including several won by very narrow margins -- but on top of that it needs to take about 11 seats that the B.C. Liberals won in that election, including a few that were won fairly comfortably by the governing party.
Translation: every single potentially winning seat is precious to the NDP. Hence my reference to that razor thin margin of error.
Which brings us to a couple of ridings the NDP need to win, but where internal party squabbles may dash the party 's hopes if things are allowed to fall apart.
The riding of Cowichan Valley on Vancouver Island has been beset with internal party strife during a messy and bizarre nomination process. One candidate quit, citing harassment and the party's refusal to deal with her claims, but more problematic is the fact the party's riding president resigned his post and now intends to run as an independent candidate.
Ian Morrison quit because he was blocked from seeking the riding nomination because he is a white male. The NDP's policy is that in ridings where a male steps down as an MLA (as is the case in Cowichan Valley) then another man (or, specifically, a white man) cannot replace him as the candidate (only a political party could come up with the twisted logic that creating equity can only be accomplished through discrimination).
In any case, Morrison's independent candidacy could be quite the problem for the NDP. Presumably he became riding president because he has some support among local New Democrats, and some are expected to vote for him in May.
The riding used to be considered a fairly safe NDP riding, but the party's support declined by more than 2,200 votes in the 2013 election compared to the 2009 vote, and much of it seemed to go to the Green Party candidate.
The Greens are running a well known local activist this time around and should continue to pick up ground (they scored close to 20 per cent of the vote last timea) and the BC Liberals, who lost by 1,400 last time, are likely licking their chops at the prospect of a further vote split among their opponents.
Meanwhile, the party is apparently facing more potential internal woes in the riding of Yale-Lillooet (another riding it likely needs to pick up from the B.C. Liberals if it wants to form government). Former long-time NDP MLA Harry Lali, who enjoys high personal popularity in the riding, wants the nomination but elements of the central party establishment don't want him anywhere near it, given his previous support for the Kinder Morgan pipeline and his propensity for criticizing the party.
We'll see where this one goes (the nomination date has yet to be set).
Then there was Independent MLA Vicki Huntington's surprise announcement that she won't be seeking re-election, which more than likely shifts her riding - Delta South - firmly into the B.C. Liberal win column, thus providing that party an even bigger cushion of seats.
Finally, the Kinder Morgan pipeline project has finally come into view as a clearer political issue. The B.C. Liberals now officially support the project, while the NDP is firmly against it.
The NDP's position may allow it to pick up some support in some of those soft B.C. Liberal ridings in Metro Vancouver suburbs (or it will simply split the anti-pipeline vote with the Greens) but it may also hamper its ability to make news inroads in ridings north of Hope.
We got a clue about how the parties will exploit the issue last week, when NDP John Horgan stated the obvious (that people in the Interior have a different view of the project than folks in Metro Vancouver). But even though Horgan is correct (I've written about the rural versus urban divide in this province a number of times), the B.C. Liberals equated his comments to a form of anti-Interior bashing (which they weren't at all, but expect more silliness to come).
Add it all up, and that margin of error may be getting ever narrower.
Keith Baldrey is chief political reporter for Global B.C.
