As the COVID-19 virus tightens its grip over B.C. in the coming weeks, it would be wise to remember some reassuring words from Provincial Health Officer Dr. Bonnie Henry.
“Remember, this is not forever,” she likes to say at her daily media briefings. “We’re going to get through this.”
The virus’ impact on the social fabric of B.C. will be substantial. Brace yourself not only for poor health outcomes for many, but for overall economic damage as well.
“The next four weeks will likely dwarf anything we’ve seen over the last four weeks,” Health Minister Adrian Dix has told me. “We have a rapidly evolving situation.”
We have already seen the suspension – temporarily, we hope – of the seasons for both minor and major league sports. However inconvenient and disappointing that development is for many, it will likely be seen over time as a rather small matter compared to many others.
For example, as of this column’s writing, it seems certain that B.C.’s schools will remain closed for an indefinite period when spring break ends.
Think of the impact that will have on parents forced to scramble for child care.
It is not even clear whether the legislature will resume sitting as scheduled next week. Government House Leader Mike Farnworth tells me he is weighing options.
Now, whether the legislature sits or not is likely not too big a deal for most folks. However, the potential closures of many other facilities and services will be of larger concern.
Already, Surrey and Delta have closed their rec centers, ice rinks, libraries and pools. Expect other cities and municipalities to follow suit.
Many small businesses will feel the economic pinch and layoffs – again, hopefully only temporary ones – appear to be inevitable. Travel restrictions will undoubtedly tighten.
However, the biggest fear is that COVID-19 could overwhelm our health care system, particularly when it comes to hospitals. Dr. Henry is cautiously optimistic it will not, but we are just now at the beginning of the outbreak.
The “numbers” in the B.C. government’s influenza pandemic coordination plan are taken from what happened when COVID-19 took over a province in China.
The good news is that about 80 per cent of those who contracted the virus experienced only mild symptoms. However, the truly frightening statistic is that five per cent of the cases there were considered “critical”, which can require hospitalization.
To put that in a British Columbia context, if only a third of our population become ill from COVID-19 (a low estimate compared to many) and that five per cent “critical” rate was maintained here, that would capture some 80,000 people.
Let’s hope the China experience is not even remotely repeated here.
It is going to be a trying month in many ways, but as Dr. Henry says, we’re going to get through this.
Keith Baldrey is chief political reporter for Global BC.
